Experts are noticing early changes in the Pacific Ocean that suggest El Niño might develop later this year. While it forms slowly, it can quietly influence the weather across the United States. From rainfall to hurricanes, this natural climate pattern can shape the months ahead.
What is El Niño?
El Niño happens when a large part of the Pacific Ocean near the equator becomes warmer than usual.The opposite phase, La Niña, occurs when these waters are cooler than normal.Even though it starts in the ocean, El Niño can change winds and storm paths. This is why it affects where it rains more and where it stays dry.
When is it expected?
Forecasters say the pattern may start forming between late spring and early summer.“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill.Forecasts are less certain during this time of year, sometimes called the “spring predictability barrier.”Still, early signs show that El Niño is slowly taking shape and could become clearer by autumn.“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence in impacts for a typical El Niño season,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. He added that there are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but that this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.
Possible effects on hurricanes
El Niño can influence the Atlantic hurricane season, especially around September.“El Niño tends to increase the mid- to upper-level wind shear (stronger winds with height and change in direction) on a more frequent basis across portions of the Atlantic Basin,” AccuWeather Long-Range Expert Paul Paletok said. “This can lead to less storm development: a roadblock to a hyperactive hurricane season this year.”Stronger winds high in the atmosphere make it harder for storms to grow. This may reduce the number of hurricanes and push storm formation further out in the Atlantic. At the same time, the eastern Pacific may see more hurricane activity.
What comes next?
El Niño is still slowly forming. Its final strength will decide how much it affects the weather.Even now, experts say this pattern will play an important role in US weather in late 2026 and the winter of 2026-27.Thumb image: Canva (for representative purposes only)