Rajaa, the son of DMK veteran TR Baalu, is well acquainted with the agrarian constituency in the heart of the Cauvery delta region, having represented Mannargudi since 2011. However, this time the contest has become more competitive with TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK joining the AIADMK alliance.In the 2021 assembly election, AMMK secured around 40,000 votes, nearly 20% of the total. The combined vote share of AIADMK and AMMK surpassed that of Rajaa, prompting AIADMK to cede the seat to its ally this time.Much of AMMK’s support came from thevars, a dominant bloc in Mannargudi, to which Rajaa also belongs. DMK cadres argue that AMMK may struggle to replicate its previous performance since a significant portion of AMMK’s 2021 votes were “anti-EPS” votes, cast during the rift between Dhinakaran and AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami. With the two now aligned, some of those voters may shift towards VK Sasikala’s AIPTMMK, which has also fielded a candidate here. 
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Sasikala, who floated the party two months ago, has been campaigning against EPS. She has deep ties to Mannargudi, where she was born and raised, and the town remains closely associated with her family. Her brother, VK Divakaran, still resides there. AIPTMMK has been visibly active here, opening offices, painting graffiti, and campaigning on the ground.AIADMK men, however, downplay her influence. “Sasikala will get a negligible share of votes,” said S Venkatesh, an AIADMK supporter from Vadapathy.Rajaa also faces a peculiar challenge from AMMK’s candidate S Kamaraj, who contested here in 2016 and 2021, losing both times to Rajaa. “There is a sympathy wave for him among voters owing to his consecutive losses,” said R Rajappa, an AMMK worker from Peraiyur.Meanwhile, actor Vijay’s TVK and Seeman’s NTK are likely to split votes further and push the contest towards a photo finish.Nevertheless, Rajaa remains confident, pointing to the welfare initiatives and development projects in Mannargudi under DMK govt, including drainage, a bypass road, a new bus terminus, libraries and bridges. “Mannargudi voters will remember the schemes and development brought by our Dravidian-model govt,” Rajaa told TOI.DMK leaders believe that the alliance’s strength and Rajaa’s influence will prevent a major drift of young voters towards TVK. In a tight race, they hope that even a small split in votes due to Sasikala’s presence could tip the balance in their favour.