The Future Ai

hot seats

NandigramAdhikari, who has spent five years shrugging off defector barbs after switching from TMC, now faces a defector himself. Adhikari defeated CM Mamata Banerjee here in 2021 by 1,956 votes. His one-time confidant, Kar, is his TMC challenger. Identity politics continues to dominate the landscape, with demographics expected to play a critical role. The 2011 Census recorded Hindus at 65.8% and Muslims at 34% of the population here. But under SIR, 12,500 Muslim voters were removed. Sabar Institute says gross deletions in Nandigram stand at 14,462, with Muslim voters accounting for 95.5% of deletions. Key issues on the ground, say residents, is hazardous development symbolized by, among other things, a standing structure for a railway station but with no rail link to the area.Past Winners : 2011 (TMC), 2016 (TMC), 2021 (BJP)Kharagpur SadarGhosh returns to this assembly seat after 10 years even as he battles to reclaim his standing within BJP. A former state BJP president, he first gained prominence here in 2016 by defeating Congress MLA Gyan Singh Sohanpal. The challenge this time for contestants in this constituency with historically narrow victory margins is the massive voter roll purge — analysis by Sabar Institute shows gross deletions under the Special Intensive Revision at over 60,730 voters. Ghosh’s primary challenger this time around is Trinamool. ,rather than Congress. BJP retained the seat in 2021 but its winning candidate in the last election, Hiran Chatterjee, has moved to another constituency. Ghosh now faces the Trinamool’s Pradip Sarkar, who is stressing on his local roots and has questioned why BJP has moved out past representatives from the seat.Past Winners: 2011 (Cong), 2016 (BJP), 2021 (BJP)MalatipurIt’s a three-way fight for this seat in the heart of Malda that pits the endurance of political dynasties against the might of state welfare. Once a Congress stronghold, the seat is now the focus of an emotional and mathematical battle as Mausam Benazir Noor — banking on the legacy of her uncle ABA Ghani Khan Chowdhury — returns to Congress after a seven-year stint with Trinamool. Her biggest challenger is Trinamool’s Abdur Rahim Boxi, who won here in 2021 by over 91,000 votes. Boxi is banking on TMC’s direct welfare delivery, arguing that CM Banerjee has inherited the developmental ethos once championed by the Khan Choudhury family. BJP’s Ashish Das would be looking to build on the party’s success in the 2024 Malda North Lok Sabha seat. The minority vote in this Muslim-majority seat (over 60% of voters) had consolidated behind TMC in 2021, but that vote bank now faces a potential split — which could favor BJP — with Mausam Noor’s return.Past Winners: 2011 (RSP), 2016 (Cong), 2021 (TMC)SiliguriThis North Bengal seat has transitioned from being a Left bastion for 30 years to a BJP stronghold now. In 2016, the Left reclaimed the seat from Trinamool, but a decisive shift occurred in 2021, when Shankar Ghosh, a former CPM leader, won it for the BJP with a margin of over 35,000 votes over Trinamool’s Om Prakash Mishra. The 2026 election centers on the demand for a separate Siliguri district. Currently, the city is split between Darjeeling and Jalpaiguri districts, forcing residents to travel up to 50-80km for administrative tasks. Deb, the Trinamool candidate and mayor, has proposed a 12-point roadmap for driving the separate district demand. Ghosh is offering a master plan for infrastructure and smart city development. According to Sabar Institute, gross SIR deletions in Siliguri is 42,979 voters.Past Winners: 2011 (TMC), 2016 (CPM), 2021 (BJP)DinhataThis border constituency about 700km north of Kolkata is a crucible of geography, migration, and contested control over land. Historically a stronghold of Forward Bloc patriarch Kamal Guha, the region has transitioned from the bloody intra-Left clashes to a fierce modern-day duel between Trinamool’s Udayan Guha and a rising BJP. The 2026 contest between state minister Guha and BJP’s Ajay Ray is framed by a legacy of structural violence. The Rajbanshi community and refugee groups hold the key to poll fortunes here. While BJP has successfully weaponised identity — citing infiltration and the persecution of minorities in nearby Rangpur — Trinamool is banking on organizational dominance and welfare schemes. Deletion of Rajbanshi names in SIR and the issue of NRC notices is bound to queer the pitch for BJP.Past Winners: 2011 (AIFB), 2016 (TMC), 2021 (BJP)BehramporeBehrampore, a Congress bastion of 70 years, is now the stage for a high-stakes triangular showdown featuring incumbent Subrata Maitra of BJP, Trinamool Congress’s Naru Gopal Mukherjee, and Congress heavyweight Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, who’s made a dramatic return to state politics after nearly 30 years. Maitra is banking on hyper-local campaigning and a hardline narrative against “infiltration” and corruption under the Mamata Banerjee govt, while Mukherjee, the local municipality chairperson, is counting on welfare schemes to woo voters. For five-time MP Adhir, it is a battle of survival, legacy and political resurrection, but he goes into it backed by a weakened party organisation. Communal polarization is the main factor here — Behrampore has 70% Hindu voters — and campaigning has been defined by temple visits and raking up of issues surrounding identity politics.Past Winners: 2011, 2016 (Cong), 2021 (BJP)