NEW DELHI: As polling for the second phase in West Bengal wraps up, exit polls have taken center stage, offering an early glimpse into what could lie ahead on May 4. If the projections hold, the results may throw up a mixed verdict, a change of guard in some states, and continuity in others.In West Bengal, most exit polls point to a hung assembly, raising the prospect of an end to Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year rule. In Tamil Nadu, projections suggest actor-politician Vijay’s TVK could emerge as the single largest party, potentially breaking the long-standing DMK-AIADMK duopoly.In Assam, the BJP is projected to secure a hat-trick with a decisive lead over the Congress. In Kerala, the CPM-led LDF may face defeat, which would end the Left’s only government in the country. In Puducherry, the ruling NDA is expected to retain power with a comfortable margin against the Congress-DMK alliance.Exit polls explained in 5 chartsWest BengalCentre-state rivalry, controversy over the special intensive revision of electoral rolls, and several other factors made the Bengal assembly elections one of the most fiercely fought contests in recent memory.A majority of exit polls conducted by various agencies predicted a neck-and-neck battle between the TMC and BJP. A poll of polls placed both parties at approximately 145 seats each in the 294-member Assembly, with smaller parties and independents expected to secure only a marginal presence.According to the exit poll survey of P-MARQ, the BJP is expected to win 150 to 175 Assembly constituencies, while the Trinamool Congress may secure between 118 and 138 seats. Others, including the Congress and the Left Front–All India Secular Front alliance, are projected to win between two and six seats.On the other hand, the exit poll survey of P-Matrize shows the BJP’s tally between 146 and 161 seats, the TMC between 125 and 140, and others between six and ten.If exit polls hold true, the BJP – once a marginal player in West Bengal – now appears to have firmly positioned itself as the principal challenger, steadily cutting into the TMC’s long-standing dominance.Yet, the TMC’s ability to match the BJP in these projections indicates that the ruling party continues to enjoy deep-rooted support on the ground.Tamil NaduIn Tamil Nadu, while most exit polls indicate that the DMK-led alliance under Chief Minister MK Stalin is on course to retain power, Axis My India predicts the rise of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay.The Axis My India exit poll projected that TVK would get 98–120 seats in its debut election, the DMK-led alliance 92–100 seats, and the five-party alliance led by the BJP 22–32 seats. According to Axis My India, Vijay is also ahead of Stalin in terms of choice for the next chief minister. While Stalin was supported by 35 per cent of those polled, Vijay got the support of 37 per cent. Several other exit polls predicted that the alliance led by the ruling DMK will return to power in the state. People’s Pulse projected 125–145 seats for the DMK-led alliance and 65–80 seats for the AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the BJP. It projected TVK getting two to six seats. Tamil Nadu has 234 Assembly seats.Even conservative estimates suggest that TVK could influence outcomes in multiple constituencies by redistributing votes.According to exit poll projections by Matrize, the DMK and its allies will get 122–132 seats and the AIADMK and its allies 80–100 seats. It said TVK would get 0–6 Assembly seats.The exit poll by P-MARQ projected 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60-70 seats for the AIADMK-led alliance, and one to six seats for TVK.People’s Insight projected 120-140 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60–70 for the AIADMK-led alliance, and 30-40 seats for TVK.If these projections materialise, Tamil Nadu could be headed for a fundamental political shift, moving beyond the long-entrenched DMK-AIADMK duopoly towards a more competitive, multi-polar landscape.AssamExit polls predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in Assam, with the Congress likely to remain a distant second.The poll of polls suggests the BJP could secure around 90 seats, significantly ahead of the Congress, which is projected to remain around the 30-seat mark, with others accounting for a small fraction of the Assembly.Among the agencies, Axis My India gave the Bharatiya Janata Party a commanding lead, projecting 88 to 100 seats, while the Congress was estimated to secure 24 to 36 seats. Another survey by Matriz also pointed to a comfortable BJP majority, predicting 85 to 95 seats for the party and 25 to 32 seats for the Congress.If the projections hold, it would mark another emphatic mandate for the BJP and further strengthen the leadership position of Himanta Biswa Sarma, who took charge as chief minister after the 2021 assembly polls.In 2021, the BJP-led NDA had retained power by winning 75 seats in the state. The Congress-led opposition bloc secured 50 seats, while one seat went to an Independent candidate.Interestingly, Assam was among the states where exit polls in 2021 came closest to the outcome, with most surveys accurately predicting the BJP’s return to office within a narrow margin of error.KeralaAccording to exit polls, Kerala is shaping up for a far more competitive contest than in the last election.With anti-incumbency quietly building, the opposition sensing an opening, and the BJP expanding its footprint, the poll of polls gives a slight edge to the UDF with around 72 seats in the 140-member assembly. However, the LDF is projected not far behind at approximately 63 seats, pointing to a narrow margin that could shift depending on constituency-level variations.At the same time, divergent projections from agencies such as Axis My India and P-MARQ highlight the uncertainty embedded in the Kerala contest. While Axis My India suggests a wider gap in favor of the UDF, P-MARQ predicts a majority for the ruling LDF, indicating that the final outcome remains open. Most pollsters predicted a setback for the Vijayan government and a UDF comeback in the state, the only state where the Left is in power.According to Axis My India, the UDF is set to secure victory in 78-90 seats, the LDF in 49-62 seats, while the BJP-led NDA is expected to get 0-3 seats.People’s Pulse projects the UDF at 75-85 seats, the LDF at 55-65, and 0-3 seats for the BJP, while Vote Vibe sees the UDF bagging 70-80 seats, the LDF 58-68, and others (including BJP) at 0-4 seats.As per People’s Insight, the UDF is expected to get 66-76 seats, the LDF 58-68, and others could get 0-1. This pollster also makes a notable prediction for the BJP, forecasting 10-14 seats.The broader significance of the Kerala election lies in its departure from historical patterns. The state has traditionally alternated between the LDF and the UDF, but the LDF’s consecutive victory in 2021 disrupted this cycle.The 2026 election, therefore, becomes a test of whether that break from tradition represents a longer-term shift or a temporary deviation.A defeat for the LDF would also have implications beyond the state, potentially weakening the national footprint of the Left, for which Kerala remains a principal stronghold.PuducherryExit polls point to a relatively clearer outcome in Puducherry, giving the NDA – led locally by the AINRC-BJP combine a distinct edge. The entry of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has added another layer of competition in the Union Territory, particularly in constituencies with socio-political overlaps with neighboring Tamil Nadu. The alliance is expected to secure between 16 and 20 seats in the 30-member Assembly, maintaining a comfortable majority.However, despite this added complexity, most projections indicate that the incumbent alliance retains a decisive advantage, reflecting either sustained voter backing or fragmentation within the opposition vote base.The Congress-DMK alliance is projected to win between 6 and 8 seats, while the TVK+ alliance is likely to capture 2 to 4 seats.N Rangasamy of the All India NR Congress also remains the most popular choice for chief minister, with 42 per cent support.
