Precious metals gold and silver are likely to remain under pressure in the holiday-shortened trading week as investor sentiments will be driven by a mix of geopolitical developments, central bank decisions, and key macroeconomic data, analysts said. Market participants are closely tracking the progress of peace talks between the United States and Iran, with analysts noting that the outcome could have a direct bearing on oil prices as well as safe-haven demand for precious metals. “Focus in the coming week will remain on the progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, and their potential impact on oil, gold, and broader financial markets,” Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, told PTI. At the same time, attention will turn to a series of central bank policy decisions, including those from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank. The April 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the last to be chaired by Jerome Powell, is expected to draw significant attention from markets. Investors will also monitor a slate of US economic data, including housing numbers, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation, consumer confidence, and manufacturing activity readings from major economies due later in the week. In the domestic market, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange fell Rs 1,910, or 1.23%, to end the week at Rs 1.54 lakh per 10 grams. Silver witnessed a sharper decline, dropping Rs 12,506, or 4.9%, to settle at Rs 2.44 lakh per kilogram. Analysts told PTI that fall in the yellow metal was partially cushioned by weakness in the rupee, which depreciated around 1.4% over the week. In global trade, Comex gold declined $138.7, or 2.8%, to close at $4,740.9 per ounce, while silver slipped $5.4, or 6.6%, to $76.41 per ounce. “Gold prices pared some of the recent gains last week after failing to breach past $5,000 per ounce in the international market and were weighed by multiple factors, including profit-booking after a gain of 10-12% in the previous four weeks,” Mer said. Crude oil prices, meanwhile, surged above $100 per barrel after developments linked to the US-Iran blockade of the Strait of Hormuz added to supply concerns. According to analysts, sustained strength in the US dollar and firm Treasury yields also added pressure on bullion. Recent US data, including retail sales, jobless claims and consumer sentiment, came in stronger than expected, further supporting the dollar. They added that global central bank actions have remained mixed, while uncertainty over the timing and direction of future interest rate changes amid inflation pressures from commodity prices is likely to keep gold and silver volatile. Looking ahead, analysts expect gold to find some support at lower levels but remain exposed to further downside if the dollar continues to strengthen and geopolitical tensions ease. Silver may see higher volatility due to its dual sensitivity to industrial demand and safe-haven flows. However, any escalation in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, or dovish commentary from major central banks could quickly revive demand for precious metals, they said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
