In 2027, most Indian cities will show a decline in crime rate. That is a safe prediction to make. Historical precedent suggests crime rates in large Indian cities fall sharply in a Census year. This is not because of better policing, but because of a mathematical glitch — one that the National Crime Records Bureau mentions in its fine print, but which is often missed in reports based on its data.
NCRB updates the number of crimes every year. But for cities, it uses the last Census population as the denominator for calculating crime rate. That remains unchanged until the next Census. So, while crimes recorded each year may rise or fall, the population used to calculate the rate remains frozen — usually for a decade, this time for over 15 years.
